The Power of Policy Narratives in Electoral Autocracies: Lessons from a Pension Movement

Social movements rely on narratives to frame their struggles and mobilise support. How they craft these narratives is especially intriguing in electoral autocracies, where political competition exists to a degree but democratic freedoms are curtailed. Our article (Celebi & Yilmaz, 2025) builds on the Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) by analyzing the policy process within an electoral autocratic context, specifically how the Turkish pension movement generated support through policy narratives on social media. 

The Turkish pension movement (“those stuck in the pension age barrier,” or emeklilikte yaşa takılanlar (EYT) in Turkish) emerged in the mid-2010s in response to a 1999 reform that reinstated a pension age requirement, prompting some citizens who began working before the change to campaign against the rule being retroactively applied to them. Despite initial government resistance, the campaign ultimately led to the requirement’s removal in 2023 for those who had their first jobs before the 1999 reform.

One of our hypotheses was that when the government resisted removing the pension age for this group, the movement would broaden its constituency through strategic narrative framing. Figure 1 below shows that the movement tended to use narrative strategies emphasizing diffused benefits and costs. By adopting this approach, the movement extended victimhood onto a wider constituency than it actually represents. We argue that this strategy served to not only broaden the movement’s base but also to expand the scope of the conflict itself. Furthermore, it reiterates the movement’s strategic engagement with electoral competition.

Image Description

Figure 1. Number of narrative strategies used involving specific characters.

Second, the temporal analysis of narrative strategy shown in Figure 2 below shows that the movement alternated between using concentrated costs and diffused benefits strategies. When the likelihood of a positive government response was low, the movement adopted a concentrated costs strategy directed at the government. Conversely, when a positive government response seemed more likely, the movement shifted to a diffused benefits strategy to advance its goals.

Image Description

Figure 2. Trends in narrative strategies.

Our article explores the ways in which non-government actors can create and leverage impactful policy narratives in electoral autocratic contexts. When narratives highlight injustice, resonate with shared values of the population at large, and leave room for political manoeuvre, they can reshape policy debates even in regimes where the odds are stacked against citizens and social movements.

This paper builds on earlier NPF research, which remains limited in contexts beyond liberal democracies; research on social movements within these contexts is even more scarce. However, alternative policy narratives still hold power in electoral autocracies. We maintain the importance of applying the NPF to electoral autocratic contexts, highlighting three new research areas: (1) testing similar narrative strategies in other electoral autocracies and policy domains, (2) examining narratives in closed autocracies without elections, and (3) comparing the narrative content and strategies of single-issue movements with multi-issue organizations.

Read the original article in Policy Studies Journal:

Celebi, Elifcan and Volkan Yilmaz. 2025. “Narrative Power in Electoral Autocracies: The Policy Narrative Behind the Success of a Pension Movement.” Policy Studies Journal 53(2): 328–348. https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.70014.

About the Article’s Authors

Elifcan Celebi is an Assistant Professor at University College Dublin’s School of Politics and International Relations. She holds a PhD degree in Political Science from the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies and the University of Cologne. Her research primarily focuses on comparative politics and public policy in electoral autocracies with a particular emphasis on care, labour and digitalisation.

Volkan Yilmaz is a Lecturer in Social Policy at Ulster University, Belfast, within the School of Applied Social and Policy Sciences. He holds a PhD in Politics from the University of Leeds. He is one of the Editors-in-Chief for the Journal of Social Policy. He serves as the Coordinator of the Sociology of Social Policy and Social Welfare Research Network (RN26) of the European Sociological Association. His areas of expertise include the politics of social policy and welfare and public policy analysis with a special emphasis on health and social protection.

A postcode lottery in education? Explaining regional inequality in multilevel systems

Existing research focuses predominantly on inequality among individuals. But inequality also has a territorial dimension. This article seeks to better understand the drivers of regional inequality in education, a key area in modern knowledge-based societies. The article specifically explores the conditions that shape regional differences in student enrolment and educational attainment across 14 OECD countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It uses Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to identify necessary and sufficient conditions of regional inequality.

The article is guided by the strong assumption in the literature on federalism, decentralization, and multilevel governance that regional authority (or, decentralization) is a key driver of regional inequality. Considering that regional authority might not be a direct cause of regional inequality, the article also explores the impact of several other factors; government spending, population size, and socioeconomic status.

More specifically, it examines the following four hypotheses:

  1. Level of Regional Authority: A high level of regional authority over educational policy is a necessary condition for a high level of regional inequality in education.
  2. Expenditures: The combination of a high level of regional authority over education policy and strong regional differences in education spending is a sufficient condition for a high level of regional inequality in education.
  3. Regional Size: The combination of a high level of regional authority over education policy and strong regional differences in population size is a sufficient condition for regional inequality in education.
  4. Socioeconomic Status: Strong regional differences in socioeconomic status are a sufficient condition for a high level of regional inequality in education.

The analysis relies on the OECD Regional Statistics database, which contains internationally comparable regional data on student enrolment and educational attainment. To measure regional authority over education, the article uses the Regional Education Authority Index developed by Garritzmann et al. (2021).

This study offers insights into how educational outcomes, and in turn opportunity and quality of life, can vary greatly across regions in any given nation (see Figures 1 and 2).

Image Description

Figure 1. Regional differences in enrolment in upper secondary education; data: OECD Regional Statistics, Statistics Norway, Statistics Sweden, Swedish National Agency for Education, Federal Statistical Office (Switzerland).

Image Description

Figure 2. Regional differences in attainment of upper secondary education; data: OECD Regional Statistics, Statistics Norway, Statistics Sweden.

Regarding the drivers of these inequalities, the analyses in the article show that regional authority over education is not a necessary condition for high regional inequality, as enrolment rates vary across regions in Austria and educational attainment varies in France despite low regional authority over education in both countries. Regional authority is also not an individually sufficient condition. However, it seems to be an important factor, as it is part of all configurations associated with high levels of regional inequality in educational attainment and student enrolment:

  • Educational Attainment: (1) A high degree of regional authority over education and strong regional spending differences. (2) A high degree of regional authority over education and strong differences in regional population size.
  • Student Enrolment: (1) A high level of regional authority over education, strong regional spending differences, and strong regional differences in population size.

Because the inclusion of Belgium might undermine the robustness of these findings due to data issues and the low number of regions, analyses were also run without Belgium. These confirmed that regional authority over education is an important factor, in combination with others.

In conclusion, the article demonstrates that regional authority over education plays an essential role in shaping educational inequality–but is not the only factor.

Read the original article in Policy Studies Journal:

Schnabel, Johanna. 2025. “A Postcode Lottery in Education? Explaining Regional Inequality in Multilevel Systems.” Policy Studies Journal 53(2): 263–284. https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12565.

About the Article’s Author

Johanna Schnabel is a Lecturer and Researcher at the Chair of German Politics, Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science, Freie Universität Berlin. Her research largely focuses on intergovernmental relations and public policy in federal and decentralized countries. She received her Ph.D. in Political Science at the Institute of Political Studies at the University of Lausanne, Switzerland.