A postcode lottery in education? Explaining regional inequality in multilevel systems

by Johanna Schnabel

Existing research focuses predominantly on inequality among individuals. But inequality also has a territorial dimension. This article seeks to better understand the drivers of regional inequality in education, a key area in modern knowledge-based societies. The article specifically explores the conditions that shape regional differences in student enrolment and educational attainment across 14 OECD countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It uses Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to identify necessary and sufficient conditions of regional inequality.

The article is guided by the strong assumption in the literature on federalism, decentralization, and multilevel governance that regional authority (or, decentralization) is a key driver of regional inequality. Considering that regional authority might not be a direct cause of regional inequality, the article also explores the impact of several other factors; government spending, population size, and socioeconomic status.

More specifically, it examines the following four hypotheses:

  1. Level of Regional Authority: A high level of regional authority over educational policy is a necessary condition for a high level of regional inequality in education.
  2. Expenditures: The combination of a high level of regional authority over education policy and strong regional differences in education spending is a sufficient condition for a high level of regional inequality in education.
  3. Regional Size: The combination of a high level of regional authority over education policy and strong regional differences in population size is a sufficient condition for regional inequality in education.
  4. Socioeconomic Status: Strong regional differences in socioeconomic status are a sufficient condition for a high level of regional inequality in education.

The analysis relies on the OECD Regional Statistics database, which contains internationally comparable regional data on student enrolment and educational attainment. To measure regional authority over education, the article uses the Regional Education Authority Index developed by Garritzmann et al. (2021).

This study offers insights into how educational outcomes, and in turn opportunity and quality of life, can vary greatly across regions in any given nation (see Figures 1 and 2).

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Figure 1. Regional differences in enrolment in upper secondary education; data: OECD Regional Statistics, Statistics Norway, Statistics Sweden, Swedish National Agency for Education, Federal Statistical Office (Switzerland).

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Figure 2. Regional differences in attainment of upper secondary education; data: OECD Regional Statistics, Statistics Norway, Statistics Sweden.

Regarding the drivers of these inequalities, the analyses in the article show that regional authority over education is not a necessary condition for high regional inequality, as enrolment rates vary across regions in Austria and educational attainment varies in France despite low regional authority over education in both countries. Regional authority is also not an individually sufficient condition. However, it seems to be an important factor, as it is part of all configurations associated with high levels of regional inequality in educational attainment and student enrolment:

  • Educational Attainment: (1) A high degree of regional authority over education and strong regional spending differences. (2) A high degree of regional authority over education and strong differences in regional population size.
  • Student Enrolment: (1) A high level of regional authority over education, strong regional spending differences, and strong regional differences in population size.

Because the inclusion of Belgium might undermine the robustness of these findings due to data issues and the low number of regions, analyses were also run without Belgium. These confirmed that regional authority over education is an important factor, in combination with others.

In conclusion, the article demonstrates that regional authority over education plays an essential role in shaping educational inequality–but is not the only factor.

Read the original article in Policy Studies Journal:

Schnabel, Johanna. 2025. “A Postcode Lottery in Education? Explaining Regional Inequality in Multilevel Systems.” Policy Studies Journal 53(2): 263–284. https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12565.

About the Author

Johanna Schnabel is a Lecturer and Researcher at the Chair of German Politics, Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science, Freie Universität Berlin. Her research largely focuses on intergovernmental relations and public policy in federal and decentralized countries. She received her Ph.D. in Political Science at the Institute of Political Studies at the University of Lausanne, Switzerland.